An important indicator of progress in stabilizing emissions is the level of increase in emissions from each country from year to year – their incremental emissions. It is clear that the greatest impact on climate stabilization will be that the largest incremental emitters stabilize their emissions. But the more we go into the decade of the 1990s without stabilization, the more difficult it will be to achieve the internationally recognized voluntary goal (The World Bank, 1995). The World Bank calculated incremental emissions for 1986-91 by adapting a linear trend to CDIAC emissions data. Where the trend was insignificant, the increment was zeroed. This process has been repeated for both individual national data and total global emissions. The White House is doing everything in its power to remove any mention of global warming from government documents. But the Pentagon could end up backing down. The view that human activity is probably responsible for most of the observed increase in global average temperature (« global warming ») since the mid-20th century is a clear reflection of current scientific thinking.   Man-made climate warming is expected to continue into the 21st century and beyond.  The consequences will be much worse when the 2oC threshold is reached, say scientists.
« We`re heading for a disaster if we can`t fail our warming and we have to do it very quickly, » says Alice C. Hill, CFR Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment. Analysis of five ways to combat pollution in Mexico City Yes, there is broad consensus within the scientific community, although some deny that climate change is a problem, including politicians in the United States. When negotiating teams meet for international climate talks, « there is less skepticism about science and more disagreement about how to set priorities, » said David Victor, professor of international relations at the University of California, San Diego. The basic science is that, in order to « significantly reduce the risks and effects of climate change, » the agreement calls for the average increase in global temperature over this century to be well below 2 degrees Celsius, while continuing efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. It also calls on countries to commit as quickly as possible to comparing global greenhouse gas emissions and to become carbon neutral by the second half of this century. To achieve these goals, 186 countries – responsible for more than 90% of global emissions – presented CO2 reduction targets prior to the Paris conference, known as « determined national contributions » (INDC).